India boosts domestic arms industry and looks West to pare back Russia reliance

NEW DELHI: India's efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian military hardware are showing results after the courting of new Western allies and a growing domestic arms industry, according to analysts.

With Moscow's military-industrial complex preoccupied with the ongoing war in Ukraine, India has prioritised the modernisation of its armed forces.

This urgency has heightened along with increasing tensions between India, the world's most populous nation, and its northern neighbour China, particularly since a deadly clash between troops in 2020.

"India's perception of its security environment in relation to China has been dramatically altered," said Harsh V Pant of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think-tank.

Relations between the two neighbours deteriorated significantly following the clash on their shared border, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers.

"It has shaken the system, and there's a realisation that we must act quickly and effectively," Pant said of the incident.

India has become the world's largest arms importer, accounting for nearly 10% of all global imports in 2019-23, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Further purchases are expected, with orders totalling tens of billions of dollars from the United States, France, Israel, and Germany in the coming years.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit France next month, where he is expected to sign deals worth around $10 billion for Rafale fighter jets and Scorpene-class submarines, according to Indian media reports.

Not easy to switch

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has also promised at least $100 billion in fresh domestic military hardware contracts by 2033 to spur local arms production.

"India has been traditionally an importer for decades and only switched to emphasising indigenous manufacturing... in the last decade," according to strategic affairs analyst Nitin Gokhale.

"It is not easy to switch, not everything can be manufactured or produced here," he said, adding the country lacked the ability to manufacture 'high-end technology' weapons systems.

But its efforts have still seen numerous impressive milestones.

This decade India has opened an expansive new helicopter factory, launched its first homemade aircraft carrier, and conducted a successful long-range hypersonic missile test.

That in turn has fostered a growing arms export market which saw sales last year worth $2.63 billion -- still a tiny amount compared to established players, but a 30-fold increase in a decade.

India is expected in the coming weeks to announce a landmark deal to supply Indonesia's military with supersonic cruise missiles in a deal worth nearly $450 million.

The government aims to triple this figure by 2029, with a significant chunk of the $75 billion it spent on defence last year aimed at boosting local production.

Spread risks

India has deepened defence cooperation with Western countries in recent years, including in the much-feted Quad alliance with the United States, Japan and Australia.

This reorientation has helped India sign various deals to import and locally co-produce military drones, naval ships, fighter jets and other hardware with suppliers from Western countries.

It has also led to a precipitous drop in India's share of arms from longstanding ally Russia, which supplied 76% of its military imports in 2009-13 but only 36% in 2019-23, according to SIPRI data.

New Delhi has nonetheless sought to maintain the delicate balance between India's historically warm ties with Moscow while courting closer partnerships with Western nations.

Modi's government has resisted pressure from Washington and elsewhere to explicitly condemn Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, instead urging both sides to the negotiating table.

Gokhale said that India was not in a position to abandon its relationship with Russia, which still plays an important role as a supplier of advanced weaponry including cruise missiles and nuclear submarine technology.

"India has certainly spread its risks by sourcing from other countries," he said. "But Russia remains a very important and dependable partner."

By RSS/AFP